Come Heller high water …
- After months of telling us Clinton was ahead of Trump, a new CNN poll Tuesday said – ta-dah! – Trump now leads. If you’re like me, you were like “Whoa, what the (insert your favorite curse word) happened? Should I start packing for Canada?” The answer is “not yet, but keep the car running.” The sudden flip-flop in the race has more to do with CNN’s poll methodology than reality. According to MSNBC’s Chuck Todd, CNN’s poll “assumes an electorate that we’ve never seen before – whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012 … whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters. So when you re-weight the actual CNN numbers to match how the electorate looked in 2012, this same poll would actually have shown Clinton up 4 points.” Still, what is wrong with this nation that Trump is even close enough to appear to lead in any poll, no matter the methodology? That’s what historians will someday study.
- Wanna hear my jiggly-eye conspiracy theory about CNN? They did it on purpose. Really. CNN is only nominally a news organization these days, the way I see it. At the very least, it’s been slowly morphing into a different kind of “news” organization than we’ve ever seen. They seem to selectively cover only news that feeds its never-ending panels of “experts.” Arguing is all they’re interested in. Therefore, a close race behooves them. Thus the screwy poll. You can now resume looking for black helicopters. (Listen, this whacko theory is probably only the product of my sheer loathing for what CNN has done to TV news, but what the heck, food for thought and debate.)
- OK, I also don’t trust polls. (What is with me today?) They’re billed as “scientific” and they’re supposed to have a small margin of error. But if they’re so accurate, why do we bother with elections at all? Why not just poll a thousand people and be done with it – boom, here’s your new president, folks. The answer is because people are human. Humans change their minds constantly. Humans lie to pollsters. Humans don’t bother to show up to the polls. Or they do … enmasse. Which means, in my warped mind, that every poll has a margin of error of 100 percent. The biggest problem with polls these days is that they steer us rather than inform us.
- Dennis, my learned CMU friend, says this: “To all my friends suffering from sneezing, itchy eyes and other seasonal allergy symptoms, goldenrod is not the source of your misery. It is time for my annual PSA (Public Service Announcement) on behalf of the beautiful nectar plant so important to monarch butterflies and a host of other insects as they prepare for winter. The sticky pollen of the goldenrod plant does not become airborne and is not an allergen. Instead, the non-descript and less showy ragweed plant is your nemesis. You’re welcome!”
- I’ve never done the Labor Day Mackinac Bridge walk, but if I ever do I’m going to walk on the lane that makes the sound when you drive on it. (It makes that sound when you walk on it, right?)
- The U.S. government is selling four lighthouses in Michigan. I’m going to buy one and put it in my backyard in retaliation for all the Sunday morning leaf-blowers around me. This could get ugly. But they have it coming. Ah-wooooooo-gah!
- The Detroit Tigers will tank and miss the playoffs. There. I said it. (I don’t really think that but if I say I think they’ll win, they’re sure to lose. I’m pretty powerful that way.)
- When did we lose the light? Prior to Labor Day, I swear it was light from 6 a.m. until 10 p.m. Since Labor Day, it’s 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. What the heck, nature?
- “Spread love everywhere you go. Let no one ever come to you without leaving happier” – Mother Teresa.
Alice Young says
The Tigers need to get in the playoffs! For my birthday gift this year I want playoff tickets, it’s on my bucket list and times a wasting, I turned 81 on Monday.
Sue says
My feelings
Andrew Heller says
I agree. Maybe the Giant Meteor’s running mate could be Sharknados.
Patricia Duffy says
Have you checked out Nate Silver?
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/
Andrew Heller says
I’m sure her lead’s shrinking, and I think Trump may win, but the methodology they used is still strange.
Linda Ann says
Great column Andrew. I would love to think that people who came to me would leave happier. That would require a generous helping of humility every minute of every day.
It would be nice if lots and lots of people would work on that!
JimIII says
Let’s see, every 4 election year cycle we seem to have a bunch of pathetic democratic whiners that state that if the republican party candidate wins the election they will leave the country.
For some reason after the election is over, we find that they are still here.
I do not think that any of those spoiled brats have ever moved out of the country.
They say they will move to Canada . I do believe that Canadians do not want them.
Most of them are a like the Greek god Janus, two faced. They like the money they can make here, but they are constantly complaining about the American way of life. That people are abused here all the time.
As I have stated before in other posts I am not impressed with Donald Trump, but I figure that he may be a better president than hilliary clinton.
AS to the TV networks, here are some of the new abbreviations for them:
ABC: Always Behind Clinton, CBS: Clinton Broadcasting Station, NBC: Nobody But Clinton, CNN: Clinton Network News.
There are a couple more, but I do not remember them.
Fox may be somewhat behind Donald Trump.
No, I do not trust polls. No matter who conducts it.
With new technology they can select whatever group they want and ask questions to get the response they need for their poll
Jeff Hollander says
WORST. ELECTION. EVER.
Tom says
Your learned friend may be wrong. I do not believe Monarch butterflies like Ragweed. They definitely like Milkweed, though. By this time of year, Milkweed’s pollen is months in the past.
Marie Campbell says
I am a white non college educated female and they didn’t ask me and I’m voting for Clinton so add one more to her side of the poll. LOL
Tom says
Maybe I misunderstood your ragweed bullet. It might be your fault as much as mine, because it is convoluted. Anyway, please carry on. You need not post everything I submit. But, if you had a back-channel email, I could send this type of stuff out of sight.
Loren M says
I don’t buy the idea that white people with no college degree are voting for Trump for several reasons partly because I’m voting for Clinton. I also resent the term uneducated white male as I’m far from uneducated and I’ve met countless college graduates that are dumber than a box of rocks. I understand exit polls since you’re questioning the actual voters but don’t put much stock into any of the other election polls.